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Computare
Kyoto Review - Canada
•Kyoto goal was set in 1997
–Tough but barely achievable then
–Subsequent setting of details made it impossible
•Details
–Restrictions on credits from nuclear technology
–No credits for clean energy exports to US
–Modest credits for forest sinks
–Unlimited credits for agricultural sinks
•Now 2004 –Canada can not meet goal by 2008
•Kyoto Protocol science basis questionable
•Where do we go from here?
•A need to review  and restart
•
When Canada signed Kyoto in 1997, I recall Prime Minister Chrétien saying we could get emission reduction credits for exporting our nuclear technology and clean natural gas.
I thought the goal was tough, but that it might be reached if we went all out to put alternate technology in place.
As negotiations to establish Kyoto details continued, Canada’s advantages disappeared.
Countries with nuclear technology were asked by the United Nations to refrain from seeking credits for nuclear energy exports to the developing countries.
After the United States dropped out, Canada made a cogent plea for credits based on hydro electricity and natural gas exports to the United States.  Again Canada was snubbed – primarily by the European countries.
Canada did negotiate modest potential credits for minor forest activities.

Canada’s negotiators were very pleased that they gained recognition for unlimited demonstrable agricultural sinks. I believe that was one breakthrough for science based policy. Otherwise, major science and technology based actions fell by the wayside.
Now we are just four years away from the Kyoto implementation date. Our emissions are away above 1990 levels. We can not meet the commitment, short of economic collapse, as new technology can not be deployed by then.
Where do we go from here? Hopefully, Kyoto will fade away.  Then we can retrench and rethink our way forward should it turn out we need to manage atmospheric greenhouse gases. We will step back now to consider Earths carbon cycle.