1	The Kyoto Protocol Where Did It Come From? Where Might It Take Us? Presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs Lethbridge, Alberta, November 21, 2002 Duane Pendergast, Computare
2	Introduction Federal government planning ratification for Christmas Canadians not sure of implications Why not take some more time to consider?
3	Contents Basic Climate Change Review Where did Kyoto come from? What is it? What can we do? Canada’s and Alberta’s plans Where might Kyoto take us? Oxymoron's, Fallacies, Paradoxes & Concerns Conclusions
4	The Greenhouse Effect Romans - 1st century AD - greenhouse effect Fourier - 1824 – theory gaseous greenhouse effect Tyndall – 1860 - experiments – water vapor Arrhenius – 1896 – coal burning => CO2 increase Callendar – 1938 – atmospheric CO2 increasing Keeling – 1957 to present – CO2 measurements
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9	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 - Rio De Janeiro Objective – ..stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…. Developed countries -1990 levels by 2000 Developing countries – excused temporarily
10	Kyoto Protocol – What is it? 1997 - United Nations meeting in Kyoto Part of the UNFCC series – COP 3 New Goal – 5% below 1990 by 2008 to 2012 Developing countries – excused temporarily Allows for emission trading - important
11	What can we do? Canada’s planning process National Climate Change Process – Post Kyoto Joint Ministers Meetings – Environment and Energy National Air Issues Coordinating Committee Issue Tables > Integrative Group Analysis and Modeling Working Group Other WG’s – Emissions Trading, Technology National Stakeholder Session and Workshop http://www.nccp.ca/NCCP/index_e.html
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13	What can we do? Canada’s Expected Emissions in 2010 - Mtonnes CO2 Equivalent
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15	What can we do? Canada’s Plan
16	Canada’s Plan – What will it Cost? The 64 billion dollar question The federal plan seeks to keep costs low Cost controlled by permit/credit price Extensive analyses undertaken and made public Many uncertainties
17	Alberta’s Plan Many similarities to Canada’s Plan Distinguished by: More attention to technology development A longer time period to deploy new technology Allows for growing emissions from Alberta Establishment of important details (Bill 32)
18	Where might Kyoto take us? Pessimistic View Legal battles with provinces and the UN Failure to meet targets The initiative fizzles out Optimistic View We meet Kyoto easily per Canada’s plan Provided permit prices are within current estimates Still are not technologically prepared for beyond Kyoto
19	Beyond Kyoto? Kyoto is just a first step – will have little effect Subsequent commitment periods intended USA and developing countries must be involved too Much lower emissions – moving to 25% -50% of 1990? Forget your fossil fuel burning cars and houses Hope the hydrogen age is developing Major move to nuclear, clean coal – maybe wind energy At least prepared for the decline of oil
20	Oxymoron's, Fallacies, Paradoxes, Concerns “Made in Alberta” or “Canada” Plan Efficiency improvement measures Forest Sinks More effective alternatives – USA?
21	Conclusion David Anderson – “Provinces will be Provinces” Federal government the parent A responsible parent would allow time for the family to understand consequences of Kyoto participation Learning has just started Decision to ratify should be delayed 1 or 2 years This does not need to preclude action