18
Computare
Where might Kyoto take us?
•Pessimistic View
–Legal battles with provinces and the UN
–Failure to meet targets
–The initiative fizzles out
•Optimistic View
–We meet Kyoto easily per Canada’s plan
–Provided permit prices are within current estimates
–Still are not technologically prepared for beyond Kyoto
–
At the moment, it's pretty easy to be pessimistic. We hear about Alberta's intent to mount legal challenges. Media reports of John Manley's visit to Lethbridge last week make us wonder if the UN has the capability to encourage compliance by Canada and - perhaps more importantly - other countries.

There seems some possibility the whole initiative could fizzle out in a sea of bickering. Perhaps in the meantime, it will be determined greenhouse gases are really not a problem.

On the other hand, it's possible the federal plan will work. I'm personally dubious all the efficiency measures will work or that permits will be as cheap as expected. It  does not seem to prepare us well for post Kyoto restrictions in greenhouse gas emissions.